- Western officials say the Russian-backed private military The Wagner Group is deploying as many as 1,000 mercenaries to eastern Ukraine.
- An official told Insider that the Wagner fighters won't turn the tide for Russia but show Putin's "desperation."
Western officials say they're expecting the Wagner Group — a private military company with close ties to the Russian leadership — to deploy as many as 1,000 mercenaries into eastern Ukraine.
The Wagner Group has been tied to Russian separatists in the Donbass region since 2014. Despite the influx of Wagner Group fighters, Western officials don't expect them to help Russia turn the tide.
"I am not necessarily convinced that 1,000 Wagner troops are going to change the tide of operations in the Donbass," one Western official told Insider.
Russia has sustained heavy losses in nearly five weeks of combat, with NATO officials estimating nearly 40,000 troops have been wounded or killed of an initial invasion force of roughly 160,000. They've been forced into a retreat near Kyiv but are continuing their increasingly indiscriminate attacks on cities like Mariupol.
Former Wagner Group mercenaries told the BBC they were contacted weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and that the group was "recruiting anyone and everyone," including those who had been banned from other mercenary groups.
The Wagner Group has a "fearsome" reputation, according to a Western official who told Insider that the groups mercenaries being sent to eastern Ukraine include senior leaders of the organization; the official asked for anonymity to discuss analysis of the war. They said these additional troops come at the expense of the Wagner Group's operations in Africa and Syria.
In Dec. 2021, the Wagner Group was sanctioned for "serious human rights abuses in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mozambique which include torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings."
The Western official told Insider that the Wagner Group's reputation comes from not adhering to the rule of law and the rules of armed conflict and that involving them in the war in Ukraine is a "significant" risk for Russia that might not prove to be worth it.
"If you're reaching for 1,000 Wagner troops thinking that is going to be crucial to succeeding in operations in the Donbass, it should give you pause for thought into how capable your broader force is," the Western official told Insider.